I believe that decision markets are one of the handful of things happening right now that can alter the course of civilization.

This belief is based on a pretty simple chain of logic:

1. 1 Institutions, the rules and incentives that shape human behavior, matter a lot. + Think about the difference between North Korea and South Korea.
   
   Similar people, radically different outcomes. The average North Korean makes three pennies for every dollar made by the average South Korean, is 20x as likely to be malnourished, and is 6.6x as likely to die as a baby.
   The Korean peninsula at night is one depiction of how different the lives of North Koreans and South Koreans is Of course, some of this comes from North Korea being excluded from trading with the West.
   
   But much of it comes from the way the countries are organized: North Korea is a totalitarian dictatorship, South Korea is roughly a free-market democracy. South Koreans are incentivized to create value for other South Koreans, either by selling their labor or by creating new enterprises, while North Koreans are incentivized to follow orders.
   
   This logic doesn't just apply to countries. Think about the difference between a startup with founder alignment and a bloated enterprise full of empire-builders. One is optimized for winning, the other is optimized for the prestige of its managers, and this makes all the difference.
2. 2 Markets are the strongest information aggregation system we have. + Markets have a long track record of beating alternative institutions at predicting the future:
   - Prediction markets beat professional pollsters.
   - Orange juice futures markets beat government weather forecasts.
   - In 1986 when the Challenger space shuttle exploded, the market had figured out that Morton-Thiakol's O-Rings were the cause within 16 minutes. You can see that Morton-Thiakol's shares dipped far more than the other government contractors after the explosion
   Markets may not be perfect, but they're a heck of a lot better than voting or committees.
3. 3 Our society's core institutions, from our companies to our governments, are far from optimal at making decisions. + “We do not call upon ordinary untrained citizens to perform surgery, fly airplanes, design computers, or carry out the other myriad tasks needed to keep society functioning, what makes governance different? The problem is readily understood: if we give governance to ‘experts’ they will make decisions in their own best interests, not in the best interests of us all.” Ralph Merkle, DAOs, Democracy, and Governance “Masses recognize elites, who oversee experts, who pick details.” Robin Hanson, Elites Must Rule

∴Decision markets, a system whereby decisions are made via markets, could bring about a step-function improvement in our collective welfare.

If you agree with this logic and want to work on something civilization-bending, consider joining us or starting a decision market-native company.